ABSTRACT
Initial research on the effect of pandemic related stay-at-home orders (SAHO) on subsequent US state unemployment rates found inconclusive results regarding the magnitude of the effect. This research helps to clarify the debate, finding that while own-state SAHOs affected unemployment outcomes, it was actually the national level of SAHO implementation across the country that had an even greater impact. While these results do not offer direct guidance on when or whether SAHOs should have been issued in any given state, they do help to clarify the impact of SAHOs on various measures of US unemployment. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1057/s41302-023-00243-4.
ABSTRACT
What factors affected whether or not a U.S. state governor issued a state-wide stay-at-home order in response to the COVID-19 pandemic of early 2020? Once issued, what factors affected the length of this stay-at-home order? Using duration analysis, we test a number of epidemiological, economic, and political factors for their impact on a state governor's decision to ultimately issue, and then terminate, blanket stay-at-home orders across the 50 U.S. states. Results indicate that while epidemiologic and economic variables had some impact on the delay to initiation and length of the stay-at-home orders, political factors dominated both the initiation and ultimate duration of stay-at-home orders across the United States.